THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said Philippine pork and beef imports are likely to increase in 2025 in line with population growth and its attendant impact on consumption.
In a report, the USDA said that strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and forecast population increases support the case for higher meat imports in 2025.
It reported that pork imports may increase 6% to 510,000 metric tons (MT), with domestic supply continuing to be impacted by African Swine Fever (ASF) even with vaccination efforts starting to roll out.
“While ASF remains present in the Philippines, the animal disease situation should improve in 2025,” the USDA said.
The USDA is estimating Philippine pork production next year of 1.06 million MT (MMT), up 2%.
“While ASF cases decreased from January 2024 to March 2024, cases have spread recently (August 2024) and this will limit the forecast growth in pork production in 2025,” it added.
The USDA said the cost of animal feed next year would likely decline as corn supply normalizes, raising hog growers’ profits.
Pork consumption is forecast to rise 1.9% to 1.58 MMT from 2024 levels.
Additionally, the USDA reported that beef and carabeef imports are expected to rise 3% to 226,000 MT in 2025.
“Population growth and a positive economic outlook buoyed by falling international prices, especially for the Philippines’ main beef suppliers, will push beef imports higher in 2025,” it added.
The USDA said that production would be little changed to 184,000 MT in 2025 due to limited land suitable for raising cattle and high feed prices.
It added that improved cattle genetics and live animal imports have driven the livestock sector to maintain the pace of beef and carabeef production, “but is not resulting in a meaningful increase in herd numbers or overall meat production.”
Beef and carabeef consumption is expected to grow 1.7% to 184,000 MT next year. — Adrian H. Halili
