THE World Bank (WB) said the Philippines could achieve a level of development similar to a high-income economy like Poland if it can sustain gross domestic product growth of 8%.
“If it really boosts growth to the high (end of the) target within the Philippine Development Plan of 8%, (by 2050) then the country would resemble Poland and be high-income,” World Bank Senior Economist Jaffar Al-Rikabi said in his speech during the Asian Consulting Group International Tax and Investment Conference 2025 on March 26.
The 8% growth rate is at the upper end of the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s 6-8% target until 2028.
In 2024, the economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 5.6%, against 5.5% in 2023. The government target for 2024 had been 6-6.5% target.
The World Bank projects the Philippines to grow by 6.1% in 2025 and 6% in 2026.
On April 8, the bank will issue its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update.
“What we see is this international experience that says it’s much harder to do it, which then makes it very important to ask ourselves here in the Philippines, what kind of reforms, what kind of investments do we need to avoid the mistakes of others and to replicate the successes of countries like Poland and Korea that did start once upon a time from low-middle income, became upper-middle income and then successfully transitioned to high income,” Mr. Al-Rikabi said.
The bank assigns economies to four income groups: low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high, based on gross national income (GNI) per capita.
The threshold for low-income countries is set at $1,145 GNI per capita, lower-middle at $1,146 to $4,515, upper-middle at $4,516 to $14,005 and high at $14,005.
The Philippines remained a lower middle-income country after GNI per capita rose to $4,230 in 2023 from $3,950 in 2022.
Mr. Al-Rikabi said the Philippines can move to the upper-middle income status in the next two or three years.
Poland had a GNI per capita of $44,670 in 2023.
If the country maintains growth of 6.5%, by 2050, its profile could resemble China’s. China is an upper-middle income economy with $24,360 GNI per capita, Mr. Al-Rikabi said.
At 5.2% growth sustained until 2050, Mr. Al-Rikabi said the Philippines’ profile will resemble Brazil’s. Brazil is an upper middle-income country with $9,280 GNI per capita.— Aubrey Rose A. Inosante
