RED AND YELLOW alerts will be less likely next year during the dry season, according to the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).
“If you look at the weather now, according to (government weather service) PAGASA, La Niña has started,” Isidro E. Cacho, Jr., IEMOP’s head of trading operations, told reporters on Tuesday.
“Of course, its impact is different from last year’s El Niño. So, going into summer next year. Based on our latest projections, we don’t see any red and yellow alerts,” he added.
However, he does not rule out the possibility of unplanned or forced outages, leading to power interruptions.
PAGASA estimates a 74% probability of La Niña setting in by January, likely to persist through the rest of the first quarter.
“Next year, in terms of supply, we’re really seeing it to be quite stable,” Mr. Cacho said.
He cited the possibility of yellow alerts in the third quarter of 2025, particularly in the Visayas, due to the maintenance programs of some power plants.
“Compared to Luzon, the supply (in the Visayas) needs a bit of reinforcement,” he said.
Earlier this year, the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection began full operations, enabling power sharing across all three main island grids.
The project allows excess power of up to 450 megawatts (MW) to be exported from the Mindanao grid to the Visayas.
This month, the market operator said power prices are low due to cooler weather and stable power supply.
IEMOP operates the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), where energy companies can buy power when their long-term contracted power supply is insufficient for customer needs.
“Although there are outages — planned and unplanned — our demand has not been affected by the unplanned outages,” Mr. Cacho said.
According to the preliminary data from the IEMOP, spot prices system-wide fell 9.7% to P3.99 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) as of mid-December.
Between Nov. 26 and Dec. 15, the available supply increased 2.9% to 20,064 MW.
Demand, on the other hand, rose 0.2% to 13,692 MW.
On Luzon, the average price declined 10.6% to P3.79 per kWh.
Supply rose 4% to 14,191 MW, while demand rose 0.1% to 9,667 MW.
The WESM price in the Visayas dropped 8.9% month-on-month to P4.39 per kWh.
The grid’s supply during the period rose 2.3% to 2,449 MW. Demand grew 1.4% to 1,998 MW.
The average power price in Mindanao dropped 6.2% to P4.55 per kWh.
Available supply decreased 0.8% to 3,424 MW. Demand fell 0.2% to 2,026 MW. — Sheldeen Joy Talavera
