PRODUCTION of palay, or unmilled rice, is expected to come in at 3.788 million metric tons (MT) during the third quarter, based on the standing crop as of Aug. 1, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.
The estimate reflects a 2.3% downgrade of the initial 3.876 million MT forecast issued on July 1.
The third-quarter estimate, if borne out, would result in a 0.3% year-on-year decline from actual output recorded in the third quarter of 2022.
The PSA said the estimated harvest area for the quarter reflects a 0.5% year-on-year decline to 926.95 thousand hectares.
“Based on standing crop for the period of July to September 2023, the yield per hectare of palay may improve to 4.09 MT or by 0.5%,” the PSA said.
About 168.07 thousand hectares of the standing crop had been harvested as of Aug. 1. This was about 18.1% of the total 926.95 thousand hectares.
Output within the harvested area was about 693.51 thousand MT.
About 14.7% of the crop yet to be harvested was in the vegetative stage, 55.5% in the reproductive stage, and 29.8% in the maturing stage.
The Department of Agriculture has said that it expects palay output during the second half to hit 11 million MT, citing estimates from the Philippine Rice Information System.
During the harvest season palay production is expected to hit 5 million MT; by the end of September output is expected at 2 million MT, and in October at up to 3 million MT.
Meanwhile, the PSA said corn production is projected at 2.48 million MT in the quarter, up 5.4% year on year.
During the quarter, the area planted to corn is projected to rise 1.8% to 820.73 thousand hectares, while total yield is estimated to rise 3.8% to 3.02 MT per hectare.
The PSA said that about 25.3% or 207.59 thousand hectares of the standing crop have been harvested, producing 580.42 thousand MT of corn.
“Of the 613.14 thousand hectares of standing corn yet to be harvested as of (Aug. 1), about 7.2% were at the vegetative stage, 49.0% at the reproductive stage, and 43.8% at the maturing stage,” it added. — Adrian H. Halili